An Unfolding Drama

marketplace CE

Hal Goldstein

Hal Goldstein is Publisher and Executive Editor of Handheld PC Magazine and president of Thaddeus Computing. He has published, edited, and written for five magazines on portable computing since founding Thaddeus Computing in 1985. You can e-mail Hal at hal@thaddeus.com.

Life was a lot simpler way back in 1996. Windows CE had just been released and there was only one type and size of PC Companion -- the Handheld PC. In the last three years we've seen two major upgrades to the operating system, and a host of new PC Companions. Windows CE got smaller in the form of the Palm-size PC, in part to challenge the popularity of the PalmPilot and other pen-entry PDAs. And quite recently, Windows CE got larger and more powerful in the form of the new Handheld PC Professional Edition, in part to challenge the popularity of notebook computers.

We're in the middle of an unfolding drama. Microsoft and the PC Companion manufacturers battle for their share of the expanding handheld and notebook computing market, and we have ring-side seats. Who will be the big players? What new products will come along? Right now, we have more questions than answers. I've listed some of them below. Did I miss any? Do you have some answers? E-mail me a hal@thaddeus.com and we'll share some of your responses.

Are there true Windows CE evangelists? Does it matter?

The PalmPilot, the Apple Newton, the Hewlett-Packard 200LX, the Psion all developed devoted, almost fanatic followers. The enthusiasm translated into sales and after-market products, but only the PalmPilot has really made it as a mainstream product.

Microsoft is very good at getting mainstream acceptance for its products. They do listen to user feedback to improve their software, but they spend more time developing the basics and then turning it over to leading manufacturers. To these partners Microsoft imparted its vision of "information at your fingertips," spoke of the virtues of a familiar-looking industry-standard operating system, and provided market research that promised a huge market for handhelds. Manufacturers in hand, Microsoft then went to its Windows developers encouraging them to write Windows CE applications.

Rather than waiting for a group of enthusiasts to evolve, Microsoft's strategy seems to be: If enough companies build Windows CE handhelds and applications, and if Microsoft listens to user feedback and improves its OS and applications, customers will come in droves. Is this the right strategy? Do you tell everyone you can about your CE device, or is it just a handy tool? Just how important is your individual enthusiasm to long range acceptance of Windows CE devices?

Do you buy Windows CE accessories and applications?

One of the things that drives the acceptance of a platform is the support independent vendors give it. Accessories and software add flexibility and functionality to a platform and if our 1999 Buyer's Guide is any indication, Windows CE doesn't seem to be doing too badly. Is our perception true? Do you enhance your PC Companion with accessories and applications? Which ones do you use? Which ones are needed?

Are developers wary of Microsoft?

Microsoft and OEMs do seem to realize that third-party developers and publications such as ours play an essential role in driving this market and creating solutions for consumers and corporate users. At the same time, some third-party developers express a lot of frustration about working with Microsoft. Frankly, we've had similar challenges developing a relationship with Microsoft even though our publication focuses entirely on Windows CE and is a great source of information.

I believe that now is the time for Microsoft to make itself more helpful and accessible to companies willing to invest their resources in Windows CE application development. Handheld PC Magazine will be happy to serve as an intermediary between the developer community and Microsoft, and between users and Microsoft. Is this a good idea? Any suggestions? Anyone at Microsoft listening?

Can Microsoft divide the world into NT and CE? What does that mean for CE?

Microsoft apparently wants to divide the electronic universe into NT (big computers) and CE (small computers and consumer electronics), eliminating Windows 95/98. What kind of CE devices will we see in the future? Phones, TV's, wireless devices, Internet/e-mail machines are obvious candidates. Will "PC companions" evolve into stand-alone notebooks, handhelds, and desktops?

Will the H/PC Pro be a notebook killer or a niche product?

How appealing will the H/PC Pro be to the notebook computer users, especially corporate users? I think it's a real winner, and will become more so as storage solutions come down in price. Our publications have long been proponents of the "RAM/ROM" model of portable computing (data in RAM, software in ROM). Pioneering RAM/ROM computers included the Radio Shack 100, the HP Portable Plus, the original NEC Ultralite, the Poqet, the HP 95/100/200LX and the HP OmniBook 300. None of these devices caught on in a big way despite long battery life, instant on, ease-of-use, and small footprint. However, RAM/ROM machines are a practical and powerful solution. Given the fact that Microsoft and major manufacturers are now behind it, it may be an idea whose time has finally come.

I think an H/PC Pro would be a great first machine. What do you think?

Some researchers have relegated the pocket-sized handheld PCs (e.g., the HP 660 or Compaq C-series) to niche markets because "you can't touch type on them," and "they're a little to bulky." These same experts predict a very healthy growth of Palm-size and notebook-sized H/PCs over the next five years. I like the middle-sized H/PC. It fits in my pocket so it's always there when I need it, and I can type reasonably well on it. Am I alone in thinking this?

Let's assume a decent battery life. Color-screen Palm-size PCs will be flasher, and the screen will be easier to read. But Palm-size PCs are designed primarily to access and synchronize data; why does color matter? Are there other advantages about using color in the Palm-size PC form factor.

Microsoft felt "Palmtop" and "PDA" did not have positive connotations in the marketplace. Therefore, it introduced "Handheld PC" or "H/PC" (not "HPC," Hewlett-Packard didn't like that.) Then came the "Palm-size PC" or "Ps/PC" (the PalmPilot folks got "PalmPC" vetoed) and the "Auto PC." Collectively, Microsoft wants all these Windows CE devices to be known as "PC companions." To muddy the water a little more the new notebook-sized unit is called the "Handheld PC Pro." Is any H/PC, no matter the size, that uses the latest Windows CE operating system an "H/PC Pro"? I don't know. When these devices become stand-alone, will they still be "PC companions" or just "PC's"? And when should we capitalize "Handheld," "Companion," "Palm-size" or "Pro"? What an alphabet soup mess.

By now you should have received our 1999 Windows CE Buyer's Guide or visited our www.hpcmag.com Web site. Pretty impressive group of products, yes? Next time someone says there isn't Windows CE software, show them the listings of over 700 Windows CE products and services. That is not to say there isn't room to grow. Where do you think the biggest holes are? What products would you like to see?

We hope you'll use our Web site as a portal into the world of Windows CE. We have close to a 1000 links to Windows CE products and services. Our site is the most complete resource of products for Windows CE. We're working on a complete re-design and have a new, full-time Webmaster. By summer we'll add daily news, quick tips, new products, and links to hot Windows CE Web sites. Keep coming back. I don't think you will be disappointed.