marketplace CE
Conventional Wisdom or Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?
by Hal Goldstein
I recently attended the Windows CE Developers Conference in Denver and PC Expo in New
York. Certain themes emerged as I listened to presentations and spoke with Microsoft
people, device manufacturers, and third party developers.
I noticed a kind of consensus about the future of handheld computing. I don't agree
with all of it, but I think it worth stating, especially since much of it may be
self-fulfilling. What do you think about these points?
At present, PC Companions are for corporate vertical markets
Someone stated that all H/PC and Ps/PC sales are vertical. This statement may be
extreme, but Microsoft and many of the device manufacturers (OEMs) seem to agree, at least
for the present. Handhelds are not yet all-purpose organizing and communications devices
for the masses. Rather they are machines ideal for many corporate market segments such as
health, sales, field work, and so forth. IBM, Compaq, and HP introduced H/PC Pro's because
they see an opportunity for sales to their big corporate clients. It will take time before
price, ease-of-use, and market understanding are such that consumers will buy these same
devices in significant volume.
No room in the PC Companion middle?
Based on new product introductions, Hewlett-Packard seems to be the only vendor that
still believes in a market for pocket sized handhelds with a keyboard. According to
industry analysts, the huge growth market in the next three to five years are two classes:
the Palm-size and the subnotebook-sized PCs. Pocket H/PC sales will be flat.
I don't agree. Even if one buys the vertical-market-only theory for handheld sales
described above, there are many mobile professionals that need small devices with
keyboards. I think HP has a real coup in this market with the Jornada 680, and that can
only help the sales of its other Windows CE devices in the corporate world.
PC Companions will primarily be
communications devices
For years the handheld has been a personal organization tool. That is, people mainly
used them for PIMs: contact management, appointments, tasks, calculation, and database
work. Many believe that in a future wireless world, handhelds will be used mainly for
e-mail, the Web, and data transfer. PIM functionality, although welcome, will not be the
compelling reason to own them.
"Why buy a Windows CE H/PC Pro when I can get a Windows 98 notebook for only a few
hundred dollars more?"
I continue to be surprised that even the people who should know better still don't get
it. I would much rather carry an H/PC Pro than a notebook when traveling. Long battery
life, simplicity of operation, light weight, small size, instant on, fast application
start, no moving parts (more rugged) make the H/PC Pro my choice for travel. Also, since
the H/PC Pro comes with a full suite of built-in software, the price spread between device
types is really more than a few hundred dollars. Yes, I occasionally need a Windows 98
application on the road, or wish that I could access the full version of Outlook on my
H/PC Pro.
PalmPilot verses Windows CE:
and the winner will be . . . ?
Whenever the Palm and Windows CE market is discussed, strong differing opinions emerge.
I personally believe that in the end, Windows CE will dominate. As I mentioned in a
previous column, the Palm is an easy-to-use and useful device, but with limited
functionality. I don't see how, over time, Palm's manufacturer, 3COM, has a chance to do
anything more than perpetuate a relatively small, niche, Mac-like following. With
Microsoft behind the scenes and the likes of Philips, Everex, HP, Compaq, and Casio
competing to create the best Palm-size device, Windows CE should emerge the dominant
force.
There is no question that 3COM's Palm currently has tremendous dominance, momentum and
support in the palm-size marketplace. But so did WordPerfect and Lotus 1-2-3 in the PC
software world ten years ago.
Consumers have lots of choices and don't have a clue
How does the average consumer interested in a handheld make a choice? He visits his
electronics store or goes Web shopping, and he finds a lot of similar looking devices.
Maybe he has heard of the Palm Pilot or recognizes the Compaq or HP name. He may have no
idea about Windows CE. How does he differentiate between devices? If he is looking for a
notebook and finds a "great deal" on a Windows CE H/PC pro, will he be happy
when he gets home and realizes that the Windows 98 software he heard about won't run on
his new machine? Many I spoke with feel that Microsoft and OEMs must do a lot more
advertising to educate the public.
What do you think about this conventional wisdom? Email me at hal@thaddeus.com or Editor Rich Hall at rich@thaddeus.com.
 Hal Goldstein (hal@thaddeus.com) is Publisher and Executive Editor of Handheld
PC Magazine and president of Thaddeus Computing. He has published, edited, and written
for five magazines on portable computing since founding Thaddeus Computing in 1985.
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