Over 50,000 people from all over the world crowded into 3GSM, the world's premier hi-tech Smartphone event in Barcelona in February. At 3GSM I saw an explosion of possibilities fueled by the convergence of technologies, new capital, and creativity. New and updated products and services ranged from TV anywhere, to on-line multi-player gaming, and to, yes, pornography. Collectively these services demonstrate the power, convenience, and personal nature of PDA phones thanks to their ability to rapidly send and receive data through the airways. Below are impressions based on my trip to Barcelona, in which I lay out some of the underlying fundamentals of this incredibly promising new world of mobile computing.
It's the operator, stupid
Microsoft CEO, Steve Ballmer
Sitting in the front row at Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer's 3GSM keynote address, I was so close that I could almost make out the pen-scribbled notes written on the back of Ballmer's hand. Taking a page from Bill Clinton's 1992 election-campaign mantra "it's the economy, stupid", Ballmer's hand must have read "it's the operator, stupid." (By "operator" Ballmer means phone companies such as Cingular or Verizon in the U.S.)
Ballmer began his talk telling us that "I love our operator partners." Later he stated "Our joint customers really expect the same flexibility and choice of activities that they get on the PC today. And it's really the operators that embrace that." Ballmer concluded by emphasizing the importance of Microsoft forming the "right partnerships" in mobile business, "first and foremost... with the mobile operators." To emphasize the point, Ballmer said, "I personally probably spend more of my time meeting with telecom executives than I do any other segment of our partner and customer constituency because we see so much of the growth opportunity building off a very successful partnership with mobile operators."
Watching Microsoft, the dominant force in the PC industry, trying to bed the phone industry giants has been fun to watch these past three years. Microsoft finds operators seductive because the operators own a key to mobile computing, analogous in many ways to Microsoft's ownership of the operating system for PC's. The operators control the infrastructure of the ether—wireless networks capable of transmitting vast amounts of digital information at astounding speeds throughout the world.
In the future we can explore the practical effect of this union for consumers and discuss the compromises Microsoft must make to consummate the relationship. For now just note that the operators have assumed a new seat of power as the Smartphone market evolves. The 3GSM exhibitors I spoke with confirmed this thesis. They emphasized their partnership with operators or argued how their products would make money for the operators or boasted that their product or service bypassed the operators.
The Smartphone market as the "next new thing"
The energy, creativity, and excitement at 3GSM reminded me of the time when PCs first came out. After that it was laptops and then PDAs. I saw it again when people understood the power of the Internet. Smartphones are definitely the next new thing, and there are lots of reasons to be bullish about the Smartphone future, including the points listed below.
Anyone can use a phone
The size of the mobile computing industry should multiply many times over as it becomes phone-centric rather than computer-centric. In the past, the people who benefited from laptops and PDAs were mostly educated professionals willing to endure the tribulations associated with computers. On the other hand, pretty much anyone who can talk can use a phone. Now that new personal mobile computers come disguised as phones, Smartphones can become as ubiquitous as TVs.
Everyone likes photos, music, and movies
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