The headlines say slump. PDA shipments were down 9.1% in 2002. Analysts at Gartner Dataquest had originally forecast a gain of 18%, following on the gain of 18% that occurred in 2001. It didn't happen.
I don't know how 2003 will shape up, but one fact getting lost in the flurry of worry is that the Pocket PC is still on the upswing. Windows CE-based operating systems are creeping up in their share of the market, from 21% in 2001 to 25.7% in 2002. That means their shipments actually increased last year, from about 2,800,000 to 3,100,000 units. That in the midst of general decline. Translation: it was a big down year for Palm, but a moderate up year for Pocket PC.
There's clearly a lid on this thing, though, and that's because the enterprise market just hasn't caught fire yet. Todd Kort of Gartner Dataquest says that it is still difficult for enterprise planners to justify purchases by ROI: "The more lucrative enterprise market has been stagnant because of poor economic conditions and a perception that PDAs are not yet capable of delivering sufficient return on investment. The enterprise market is still another year away from embracing PDAs." (www4.gartner.com/5_about/press_releases/pr27jan2003a.jsp)
AAnd yet, sales predictions over the next two years are healthy because we're seeing significantly lower prices than we did this time last year. This is bound to make the ROI estimates look a lot better.
We've published several articles lately on how to justify corporate Pocket PC deployments. For example, Don Sorcinelli's article "It's All About the ROI" (March
2003, p. 69) outlined strategies for building a business case for Pocket PCs. In this issue, be sure to read Lee Gimpel's article "Savings Realized from Mobile Solutions", which goes into data collection and productivity issues in some detail to specify where you can look for economies with mobile solutions.
If you need ideas on where your business might benefit from mobile technology, Nathan Clevenger gives a number of applications for horizontal markets (or business functions) in "Think Horizontal!", a follow-up to his article on vertical (or industry-specific) markets in the May 2003 issue. These articles give you a good compendium of strategies for different market segments that can increase ROI through mobile technology.
In this issue Chris De Herrera addresses what might seem a basic issue--how to select the right Pocket PC hardware for a given implementation--but it is one that never becomes irrelevant in cost justifications (a href="Dictionaries.htm">click
for more). Certainly now, with available choices covering a wider cost spectrum, it will be important for purchasers to determine which unit is most cost-effective for their needs.
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